the likelihood that president obama has an actual lead based on the polls is 97%. that doesn't mean that he has a 97% chance of winning ohio. it just means that he has 97% of leading today in ohio. now wisconsin 49.8%-46.0%. probability of the lead today is 98.5%. then you go to i had iowa. another somewhat comfortable lead for president obama. probability of his lead is 95.3%. and then in nevada, 49.7%-46.4%, and again 98.1% chance that he actually has got the lead in that state. when you look at 95% and above in the four states that he absolutely has to win--he could lose every other state, florida, virginia, all the other swing states, north carolina, he still gets 277 electoral votes and continues to be president of the united states. so as we get all those national polls that make people panic understand that this is a collection of polls and it doesn't look so bad. it looks pretty good, in fact. now of course, a deal now to cinch the deal in ohio they send bubba. >> we went to florida last night. he said, i got to go back right now. this storm is getting out